ALDS Game 3 MLB Picks – Indians at Red Sox Sunday, October 9th, 2016


This series shifts to Fenway and the Red Sox have quite the task ahead of these and everything starts with a win in Game 3 at home.

Game 3Clay Buchholz is 8-10 with a 4.78 ERA and lost his spot in the rotation in the center of the season. Those aren’t what you would like out of a beginner that carries the fate of the whole season on his shoulders.

Obviously, the entire season numbers for just about any player could be misleading when you’re looking to anticipate what he’ll do within a postseason start. It may be more useful to examine Buchholz’s last few start

The 32-year old right-hander returned to the rotation in start of September and threw five starts, going 3-0 with a 3.14 ERA. He had just one clunker in those five games, that coming against a powerful Blue Jays roster.

The improved play is positive, but this is still a pitcher with a lifetime ERA of 4.85 against Cleveland in seven starts.

He’s obviously capable of a big start. We’ve seen him dominant for stretches and we’ve seen him look absolutely lost. He’s throwing the ball well right now and he’s got some postseason experience. That’s got to count for something, though his results in the playoffs have been just as mixed as during the regular season.

Buchholz is a huge question mark, but so is Cleveland’s start Josh Tomlin.

Tomlin won’t hurt himself. He leads the league in fewest walks allowed per nine innings and last gave up a walk on August 25. That’s six straight starts without a walk.

It’s important to really make the opposition work their way on base, but Tomlin takes it to a near extreme and he doesn’t have the stuff or movement to produce it work. Instead, sometimes the opposition knows to anticipate the ball in the zone and is hacking early and often. That mentality led to a dismal month of August where Tomlin’s ERA rocketed from 3.43 to 4.89. It’s down seriously to 4.40 now after a strong rebound month in September. His last four starts have all been very good. Cleveland is 3-1 included and he’s allowed only five runs in 25.2 innings.

Buchholz gives up some runs, but so will Tomlin. This game then becomes a bullpen game. The Sox’s pen is a bit more rested and the Boston offense a bit more dangerous. Boston stays alive for a later date with a gain in a shootout in Boston. MLB Picks Bet on Boston Red Sox.


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