Breeders’ Cup Odds Preview: Juvenile Turf & Juvenile Fillies Turf

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The two legs of the Friday late pick-4 at the Breeders’ Cup is the $1-million Dirt Mile and the day’s feature race, the $2-million Distaff, and thank you to those that changed the name back from the Ladies’ Classic.

Breeders’ Cup OddsThe Dirt Mile goes as race eight and drew a field of 12 with one horse on the also-eligible list. That horse, Easter Gift, was said to have not made the trip to Santa Anita; however, so we will just look at the body of the field. The morning line favorite for the race is Verrazano, a three-year-old for Todd Pletcher that has won six of his eight career starts including the Grade 1 Haskell and Grade 1 Wood Memorial. In the six editions of the Dirt Mile only one three-year-old has won and Verrazano is coming off a terrible performance in the Travers back in August. This is not an easy spot for his return.

Those looking to upset the favorite should consider Hymn Book, Brujo de Olleros, Broadway Empire, Centralinteligence, Pants On Fire and Goldencents. Pants On Fire and Goldencents are 6-1 and 4-1 on the morning line, but drew poor posts positions in gates 11 and 12. They will need to work out a trip with a short run to the first turn.

Hymn Book and Brujo de Olleros exit the Kelso where they chased gate to wire winner Graydar. Brujo de Olleros is the preferred pick making his third start off the layoff. Broadway Empire is expected to set the pace while Centralinteligence is a sneaky play in his second start off the layoff.

The Distaff only drew a field of six, but a case can be made for five of them. Of course, they will all need to beat the two-time defending champion, Royal Delta.

Jockey Mike Smith may have surprised everyone last year when he went straight to the lead, but there will be no easy leads on Friday with the speedy Beholder drawn directly outside of her. Beholder knows only one way to go, and that’s to the lead. Close Hatches and Authenticity are two that will be right behind the top pair and will get first run on the favorites. The choice for the race; however, is the three-year-old filly, Princess of Sylmar.

The Pennsylvania-bred daughter of Majestic Warrior is on a four-race win streak and all of them are Grade 1 races. She won the Kentucky Oaks in May then reeled off victories in the Coaching Club American Oaks, Alabama and Beldame Invitational. In the Beldame she beat Royal Delta and just ran away from her. It was expected that would be the last race of 2013 for Princess of Sylmar, but she came out of that race with a lot left and will be a handful to hold off late.

The 30th running of the Distaff may be one of the best.

First post on Friday at Santa Anita is 1:40 pm ET with the Juvenile Turf off at 5:25. The first Breeders’ Cup race is the Marathon, which goes to post at 4:45. Post time for the Dirt Mile is 6:05.

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Posted by Matt Carter
Breeders’ Cup Preview: Juvenile Turf & Juvenile Fillies Turf
October 28th, 2013

Breederscup2013 Breeders’ Cup Preview: Juvenile Turf & Juvenile Fillies TurfThe two turf races on day one of the 2013 Breeders’ Cup World Championships are both for two-year-olds, the Juvenile Turf and the Juvenile Fillies Turf. The two mile races make up half of the pick-4 with the Juvenile Turf kicking it off.

Both races have started to have some history to them after being added to the Breeders’ Cup in 2007 and 2008. The Breeders’ Cup was held at Santa Anita in 2008, 2009 and 2012 so we can see if there are any patterns that exist.

Since the race inception in 2007, there have only been two non-European runners to win the Juvenile Turf. Nownownow won in 2007 at Monmouth Park with Pluck taking the event at Churchill in 2010. Aidan O’Brien has won the last two editions and this year he brings perhaps his strongest contender, Giovanni Boldini, a West Virginia-bred son of War Front that cost $675,000 as a yearling last August. Giovanni Boldini follows in the footsteps of Wrote, 2011 winner, and George Vancouver, 2012 winner. Other Europeans in the race with similar Racing Post Ratings to the favorite are Outstrip and Shamshon.

The best U.S. horses look to be Aotearoa, winner of the Zuma Beach over the Santa Anita turf course, and Bobby’s Kitten, winner of the Grade 3 Pilgrim at Belmont Park. Historical data is good, but if you do not draw a good post in this race, forget it, as it is tough to win going a mile from an outside post.

Those helped with the draw are Giovanni Boldini, two, Outstrip, four, Bobby’s Kitten, five, and Aotearoa, seven. Poker Player, Shamshon and Bashart drew posts 11 through 13 and will need some racing luck.

Of the five winners in the Juvenile Fillies Turf, only one has come from Europe, a stark contrast of the Juvenile Turf winners. Maram, Tapitsfly and More Than Real all exited turf stakes on the East coast. Maram and Tapitsfly came from the Miss Grillo at Belmont Park while More Than Real came out of the Natalma at Woodbine. This year’s group from the Miss Grillo include race winner Testa Rossi, who began her career in Europe, as well as the second, third and fourth place finishers; Sky Painter, Dancing House and Granny Mc’s Kitten. Ready to Act, a filly by the sire of More Than Real, More Than Ready, comes out of the Natalma, but in that race she veered in down the stretch and lost her rider. That mistake cost her; however, as she was out there moving like a winner. If she minds her manners on Friday, she could be a big player. Of course if this year’s group of European runners shows their “A” race, the U.S.-based fillies may not even hit the board.

Al Thakhira is undefeated in her two starts with a win in the Group 2 Rockfel Stakes at Newmarket. Chriselliam just won the Group 1 Shadwell Fillies Mile and Vorda is four-for-five in her career with a Group 1 and Group 2 win. Her only loss came against the Wesley Ward trained No Nay Never in the Group 1 Prix Morny at Deauville in France. Last year’s race winner of the Juvenile Fillies Turf, Flotilla, was a French-bred, just like Vorda.

Post Position draw for this race was terrible with Ready to Act, Testa Rossi, Sky Painter and My Conquestadory drawing posts 11 through 14. Clenor drew post 10, which isn’t ideal either. Al Thakhira drew well in two with Chriselliam in eight and the probable race favorite, Vorda, in post six. Granny Mc’s Kitten drew well in post five as did live longshot Colonel Joan, who will break from gate three.

Not an easy way to start the Breeders’ Cup on Friday for some connections, but with the draw there should be some great wagering opportunities. Stay tuned tomorrow for analysis of the Dirt Mile and Distaff.

Breeders’ Cup Odds

11  –  –  Ready to Act  8-1  Chad Brown  Joel Rosario
12  –  –  Testa Rossi  8-1  Chad Brown  Jose Lezcano
13  –  –  Sky Painter  5-1  Kiaran McLaughlin  Luis Saez
14  –  –  My Conquestadory  9-2  Mark Casse  Eurico Da Silva
–  –  1  Nesso  20-1  Vann Belvoir  Martin Garcia
–  –  2  Al Thakhira (GB)  6-1  Marco Botti  Ryan Moore
–  –  3  Colonel Joan  20-1  Eoin Harty  Joseph Talamo
–  –  4  Kitten Kaboodle  12-1  Chad Brown  John Velazquez
–  –  5  Granny Mc\’s Kitten  20-1  Chad Brown  Javier Castellano
–  –  6  Vorda (FR)  4-1  Philippe Sogorb  Olivier Peslier
–  –  7  Street Sailing  15-1  Richard Mettee  Alan Garcia
–  –  8  Chriselliam (IRE)  6-1  Charles Hills  Richard Hughes
–  –  9  Dancing House  20-1  Kiaran McLaughlin  Mike Smith
–  –  10  Clenor (IRE)  8-1  Doug O\’Neill  Rafael Bejarano

Horse Betting at BetOnline

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