Free Horse Racing Picks Betfair Hollywood Park – Saturday, May 11, 2013

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Eight lightly raced three-year-old fillies looking to earn black-type are going to take one spin around the Betfair Hollywood Park turf course. Here’s one persons opinion on what may happen:

Betfair Hollywood Park #1 LILBOURNE ELIZA has never finished off the board in five lifetime starts.

#2 KYRIAKI has improving Beyer Speed Figures but really had no excuse last time. One more chance?

#3 SHOWGIRL FORM broke her maiden at Golden Gate. The water gets deeper here.

#4 DISKO DASKO goes from a sprint to a route, but based upon my paddock observations the last two times she has ran, she does not have a body type that will improve as the distances get longer.

#5 SWEET RED CAT is a grinder who might not appreciate the slight cutback in distance.

#6 NEED YOU NOW, despite her disappointing U.S. sprint debut, is one that has a body type to adore two turns for a trainer who excels with this move.

#7 CHARLIE EM debuts stateside after beating the boys two back in England. Go-Go on board tells you she’s live.

#8 SCARLET STRIKE is the 121 lb. highweight and the only graded stakes winner in the field. She’s trained by ‘King Jerry’ (Hollendorfer) so it’s hard to find a chink in her armor, but the filly she beat last time (Birdlover) disappointed in Kentucky last weekend. Could she be vulnerable?

Horse Racing Picks
1. #6 NEED YOU NOW – Poor last running line will inflate her price.

2. #7 CHARLIE EM – Not the strongest graded stakes race in the world.

3. #8 SCARLET STRIKE – Class of the field.

LONG SHOT VALUE PLAY: #1 LILBOURNE ELIZA – Admire her consistency.

WAGERING STRATEGY
I’m like a shark that smells blood when I sense a vulnerable favorite, and that’s what I see in this race with a likely overbet favorite in SCARLET STRIKE.

BANKROLL PLAY
$20 Win: #6 NEED YOU KNOW
$20 Win: #7 CHARLIE EM
$5 Exacta Box: #6 NEED YOU KNOW and #7 CHARLIE EM ($10).

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