Horse Racing Picks – Betfair Hollywood Park Saturday, May 25, 2013

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This race annually serves as a key local prep for the Horse Racing Picks $300,000 Shoemaker Mile (G1) which will be run this year on June 29th, and if this race is any indication of the possible runners that race next month may have, it could turn out to be a key Breeders’ Cup Mile prep race. Here’s my opinion on what may happen this Saturday at the track of lakes and flowers:

Horse Racing PicksTHE RACE
$150,000 American Handicap (G2)
Betfair Hollywood Park
Race 3 (Saturday, May 25, 2013: post time: 5:01 p.m./ET; 2:01 p.m./PT)
1 mile on the turf (three-year-olds and up)

This race annually serves as a key local prep for the $300,000 Shoemaker Mile (G1) which will be run this year on June 29th, and if this race is any indication of the possible runners that race next month may have, it could turn out to be a key Breeders’ Cup Mile prep race. Here’s my opinion on what may happen this Saturday at the track of lakes and flowers:

#1 LUCAYAN brings a gaudy resume from Europe (three wins from eight starts with $405,000 in career earnings) to his stateside debut, but his new trainer, although a Hall of Famer, has found the winner circle to be quite elusive the last seventeen months.

#2 OBVIOUSLY is one of my favorite horses in training. Two races back, he ran a great third in the Breeders’ Cup Mile to Horse of the Year WISE DAN and eventual Dubai World Cup winner ANIMAL KINGDOM. Then in his 2013 comeback race last month, he was a step or two slow into stride at the break, still ran a :43 second flat half mile and lost by a ½ length to a horse who missed setting a new track record by .18 seconds. All systems go today.

#3 BAROCCI was bred in Japan and is a grandson of the great Sunday Silence, an unfortunate rarity in North American racing. This will be his third start in the John Sadler barn but he seems a cut below these at the moment.

#4 CHOSEN MIRACLE resides in the red hot Jerry Hollendorfer barn and merits respect off that simple fact. Problem is, this five-year-old likes to ply his trade on the front end, and I don’t see him out dueling OBVIOUSLY.

#5 RACING APTITUDE is the first of two entered by Bob Baffert. He hasn’t run since last August and he finished a distant second to OBVIOUSLY the time before that, so let’s see one first.

#6 DRILL, the second of the uncoupled Baffert runners, is a supplemental nomination to this race, which automatically picks my head up. He’s also got two bullet works (albeit on dirt at Santa Anita) since his last race, which leads me to further believe he’s doing exceptionally well.

Horse Racing Picks
1. #2 OBVIOUSLY – All heart on the lead.

2. #6 DRILL – Multiple graded stakes race winner.

3. #1 LUCAYAN – Stranger danger.

LONG SHOT VALUE PLAY: #3 BAROCCI – Sentimental favorite due to his breeding.

WAGERING STRATEGY
If he’s going to have a 2013 campaign like I think he’s capable of, OBVIOUSLY is supposed to win this race, given the competition. I’ll key him on top in a one way exacta against his main danger (DRILL), then come back with a few smaller saver exactas.

BANKROLL PLAY
$30 Exacta: #2 OBVIOUSLY over #6 DRILL
$10 Exacta: #2 OBVIOUSLY over #1 LUCAYAN
$5 Exactas: #1 LUCAYAN and #6 DRILL over #2 OBVIOUSLY ($10).

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